Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States' largest river basin.

Autor:	Martin JT; Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT 59717; justinmartin@usgs.gov., Pederson GT; Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT 59717., Woodhouse CA; School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721.; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721., Cook ER; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964., McCabe GJ; Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Water Mission Area, US Geological Survey, Denver, CO 80225., Anchukaitis KJ; School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721.; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721., Wise EK; Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599., Erger PJ; Missouri Basin Region, US Bureau of Reclamation, Billings, MT 59107., Dolan L; Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Helena, MT 59601., McGuire M; Technical Service Center, US Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO 80225., Gangopadhyay S; Technical Service Center, US Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO 80225., Chase KJ; Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, US Geological Survey, Helena, MT 59601., Littell JS; Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, US Geological Survey, Anchorage, AK 99503., Gray ST; Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, US Geological Survey, Anchorage, AK 99503., St George S; Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455., Friedman JM; Fort Collins Science Center, US Geological Survey, Ft. Collins, CO 80526., Sauchyn DJ; Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada., St-Jacques JM; Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H3G 1M8, Canada., King J; Lone Pine Research, Bozeman, MT 59715.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2020 May 26; Vol. 117 (21), pp. 11328-11336. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 May 11.
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.1916208117
Abstrakt:	Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the "turn-of-the-century drought," was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring-based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management. Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest. (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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