Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe.
| Autor: | Vousdoukas MI; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. Michail.VOUSDOUKAS@ec.europa.eu., Mentaschi L; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy., Hinkel J; Global Climate Forum, Adaptation and Social Learning, Neue Promenade 6, Berlin, 10178, Germany.; Division of Resource Economics at Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany., Ward PJ; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands., Mongelli I; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy., Ciscar JC; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy., Feyen L; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Zdroj: | Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2020 May 05; Vol. 11 (1), pp. 2119. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 May 05. |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3 |
| Abstrakt: | Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe's coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83% of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7%-32.1% of Europe's coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth. |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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