Estimating uncertainty in geospatial modelling at multiple spatial resolutions: the pattern of delivery via caesarean section in Tanzania.

Autor:	Ruktanonchai CW; School of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK., Nieves JJ; School of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK., Ruktanonchai NW; School of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK., Nilsen K; School of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK., Steele JE; School of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK., Matthews Z; Department of Social Statistics & Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK., Tatem AJ; School of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	BMJ global health [BMJ Glob Health] 2020 Feb 10; Vol. 4 (Suppl 5), pp. e002092. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Feb 10 (Print Publication: 2019).
DOI:	10.1136/bmjgh-2019-002092
Abstrakt:	Visualising maternal and newborn health (MNH) outcomes at fine spatial resolutions is crucial to ensuring the most vulnerable women and children are not left behind in improving health. Disaggregated data on life-saving MNH interventions remain difficult to obtain, however, necessitating the use of Bayesian geostatistical models to map outcomes at small geographical areas. While these methods have improved model parameter estimates and precision among spatially correlated health outcomes and allowed for the quantification of uncertainty, few studies have examined the trade-off between higher spatial resolution modelling and how associated uncertainty propagates. Here, we explored the trade-off between model outcomes and associated uncertainty at increasing spatial resolutions by quantifying the posterior distribution of delivery via caesarean section (c-section) in Tanzania. Overall, in modelling delivery via c-section at multiple spatial resolutions, we demonstrated poverty to be negatively correlated across spatial resolutions, suggesting important disparities in obtaining life-saving obstetric surgery persist across sociodemographic factors. Lastly, we found that while uncertainty increased with higher spatial resolution input, model precision was best approximated at the highest spatial resolution, suggesting an important policy trade-off between identifying concealed spatial heterogeneities in health indicators. Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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