Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change.

Autor: Maberly SC; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK. scm@ceh.ac.uk., O'Donnell RA; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK., Woolway RI; Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies, Dundalk Institute of Technology, Dundalk, A91 K584, Ireland., Cutler MEJ; School of Social Sciences, University of Dundee, Dundee, DD1 4HN, UK., Gong M; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.; British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK., Jones ID; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK.; Biological and Environmental Science, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, UK., Merchant CJ; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AL, UK.; National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AL, UK., Miller CA; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK., Politi E; School of Social Sciences, University of Dundee, Dundee, DD1 4HN, UK., Scott EM; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK., Thackeray SJ; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK., Tyler AN; Biological and Environmental Science, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2020 Mar 06; Vol. 11 (1), pp. 1232. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Mar 06.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z
Abstrakt: Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21 st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080-2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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