Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport.

Autor:	Bintanja R; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands.; Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 6/7, 9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands., van der Wiel K; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands., van der Linden EC; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands.; Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands., Reusen J; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands.; Astrodynamics and Space Missions, Delft University of Technology (TUD), Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft, Netherlands., Bogerd L; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands., Krikken F; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands., Selten FM; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Science advances [Sci Adv] 2020 Feb 12; Vol. 6 (7), pp. eaax6869. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Feb 12 (Print Publication: 2020).
DOI:	10.1126/sciadv.aax6869
Abstrakt:	The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts. (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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