| Autor: |
Tyson RC; Mathematics, Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences Unit 5 BLDG SCI, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 1177 Research Road, Kelowna, BC, V1V 1V7, Canada. rebecca.tyson@ubc.ca., Hamilton SD; Mathematics, Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences Unit 5, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 1177 Research Road, Kelowna, BC, V1V 1V7, Canada., Lo AS; ENSTA ParisTech, 828 Boulevard des Maréchaux, 91120, Palaiseau, France., Baumgaertner BO; Department of Politics and Philosophy, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive, MS 3165, Moscow, ID, 83844-3165, USA., Krone SM; Department of Mathematics, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive, MS 1103, Moscow, ID, 83844-1103, USA. |
| Abstrakt: |
During an epidemic, the interplay of disease and opinion dynamics can lead to outcomes that are different from those predicted based on disease dynamics alone. Opinions and the behaviours they elicit are complex, so modelling them requires a measure of abstraction and simplification. Here, we develop a differential equation model that couples SIR-type disease dynamics with opinion dynamics. We assume a spectrum of opinions that change based on current levels of infection as well as interactions that to some extent amplify the opinions of like-minded individuals. Susceptibility to infection is based on the level of prophylaxis (disease avoidance) that an opinion engenders. In this setting, we observe how the severity of an epidemic is influenced by the distribution of opinions at disease introduction, the relative rates of opinion and disease dynamics, and the amount of opinion amplification. Some insight is gained by considering how the effective reproduction number is influenced by the combination of opinion and disease dynamics. |
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