Measles transmission during a large outbreak in California.

Autor:	Worden L; Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA., Ackley SF; Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA., Zipprich J; California Dept. of Public Health, Immunization Branch, 850 Marina Bay Parkway, Building P, Richmond, CA, USA., Harriman K; California Dept. of Public Health, Immunization Branch, 850 Marina Bay Parkway, Building P, Richmond, CA, USA., Enanoria WTA; Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA., Wannier R; Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA., Porco TC; Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Epidemics [Epidemics] 2020 Mar; Vol. 30, pp. 100375. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Nov 10.
DOI:	10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100375
Abstrakt:	A large measles outbreak in 2014-2015, linked to Disneyland theme parks, attracted international attention, and led to changes in California vaccine policy. We use dates of symptom onset and known epidemic links for California cases in this outbreak to estimate time-varying transmission in the outbreak, and to estimate generation membership of cases probabilistically. We find that transmission declined significantly during the course of the outbreak (p = 0.012), despite also finding that estimates of transmission rate by day or by generation can overestimate temporal decline. We additionally find that the outbreak size and duration alone are sufficient in this case to distinguish temporal decline from time-invariant transmission (p = 0.014). As use of a single large outbreak can lead to underestimates of immunity, however, we urge caution in interpretation of quantities estimated from this outbreak alone. Further research is needed to distinguish causes of temporal decline in transmission rates. (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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