Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate change.

Autor: Ortega JCG; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução Universidade Federal de Goiás Goiânia Brazil., Machado N; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução Universidade Federal de Goiás Goiânia Brazil., Diniz-Filho JAF; Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Federal de Goiás Goiânia Brazil.; Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change - Rede Clima Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais São José dos Campos Brazil., Rangel TF; Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Federal de Goiás Goiânia Brazil., Araújo MB; Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Evolutiva Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales CSIC Madrid Spain.; Cátedra de Biodiversidade Rui Nabeiro Universidade de Évora Évora Portugal.; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark., Loyola R; Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Federal de Goiás Goiânia Brazil.; Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change - Rede Clima Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais São José dos Campos Brazil.; Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável Rio de Janeiro Brazil., Bini LM; Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Federal de Goiás Goiânia Brazil.; Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change - Rede Clima Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais São José dos Campos Brazil.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Ecology and evolution [Ecol Evol] 2019 Aug 29; Vol. 9 (19), pp. 11136-11144. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Aug 29 (Print Publication: 2019).
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5617
Abstrakt: Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the total variance in range shifts occurred "within species" (i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using meta-analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce species-specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using meta-analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for powerful correlates of climate change-induced range shifts can be a promising line of investigation.
Competing Interests: None declared.
(© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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