Site-selection bias and apparent population declines in long-term studies.

Autor: Fournier AMV; Coastal Research and Extension Center, Mississippi State University, 1815 Popp's Ferry Road, Biloxi, MS, 39532, U.S.A., White ER; Center for Population Biology, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, 95616, U.S.A., Heard SB; Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB, E3B 5A3, Canada.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Conserv Biol] 2019 Dec; Vol. 33 (6), pp. 1370-1379. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Jul 03.
DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13371
Abstrakt: Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. Logistical difficulties and the spatiotemporal variability of populations make estimation of population declines difficult. For statistical reasons, estimates of population decline may be biased when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species. In this situation, apparent population declines are likely to be detected even if there is no decline. This site-selection bias is mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We used simulations and real population data to examine the effects of site-selection biases on inferences about population trends. We used a left-censoring method to detect population-size patterns consistent with site-selection bias. The site-selection bias is an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis. Article impact statement: Estimates of population declines are biased if studies begin in large populations, and time-series data show a signature of such an effect.
(© 2019 Society for Conservation Biology.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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