Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.

Autor:	Lo YTE; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK., Mitchell DM; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol BS5 9LT, UK., Gasparrini A; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Vicedo-Cabrera AM; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK., Ebi KL; Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA., Frumhoff PC; Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA 02478, USA., Millar RJ; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.; Committee on Climate Change, London SW1W 8NR, UK., Roberts W; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK., Sera F; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK., Sparrow S; Oxford e-Research Centre, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QG, UK., Uhe P; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK., Williams G; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Science advances [Sci Adv] 2019 Jun 05; Vol. 5 (6), pp. eaau4373. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Jun 05 (Print Publication: 2019).
DOI:	10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
Abstrakt:	Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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