Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island.

Autor: Guerra CA; Medical Care Development International, 8401 Colesville Road, Suite 425, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, USA. cguerra@mcd.org., Kang SY; Malaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford, OX3 7FY, UK., Citron DT; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 Fifth Ave., Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA., Hergott DEB; University of Washington, Department of Epidemiology, 1959 NE Pacific Street, Health Sciences Bldg, F-262, Box 357236, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA., Perry M; Medical Care Development International, 8401 Colesville Road, Suite 425, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, USA., Smith J; Medical Care Development International, Avenida Parques de Africa S/N, Malabo, Equatorial Guinea., Phiri WP; Medical Care Development International, Avenida Parques de Africa S/N, Malabo, Equatorial Guinea., Osá Nfumu JO; Medical Care Development International, Avenida Parques de Africa S/N, Malabo, Equatorial Guinea., Mba Eyono JN; Medical Care Development International, Avenida Parques de Africa S/N, Malabo, Equatorial Guinea., Battle KE; Malaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford, OX3 7FY, UK., Gibson HS; Malaria Atlas Project, Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford, OX3 7FY, UK., García GA; Medical Care Development International, 8401 Colesville Road, Suite 425, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, USA., Smith DL; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 Fifth Ave., Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2019 May 27; Vol. 10 (1), pp. 2332. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 May 27.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10339-1
Abstrakt: Malaria burden on Bioko Island has decreased significantly over the past 15 years. The impact of interventions on malaria prevalence, however, has recently stalled. Here, we use data from island-wide, annual malaria indicator surveys to investigate human movement patterns and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Using geostatistical and mathematical modelling, we find that off-island travel is more prevalent in and around the capital, Malabo. The odds of malaria infection among off-island travelers are significantly higher than the rest of the population. We estimate that malaria importation rates are high enough to explain malaria prevalence in much of Malabo and its surroundings, and that local transmission is highest along the West Coast of the island. Despite uncertainty, these estimates of residual transmission and importation serve as a basis for evaluating progress towards elimination and for efficiently allocating resources as Bioko makes the transition from control to elimination.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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