| Autor: |
Bistline JE; Electric Power Research Institute, 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94304, USA., Hodson E; U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, Washington, DC 20585, USA., Rossmann CG; Southern Company, 600 N. 18th Street, Birmingham, AL 35203, USA., Creason J; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, Mail Code 6207J, Washington, DC 20460, USA., Murray B; Duke University, Energy Initiative and Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Box 90335, Durham, NC 27708, USA., Barron AR; Smith College, 44 College Lane, Northampton, MA 01063, USA. |
| Abstrakt: |
The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 32 study compares a range of coordinated scenarios to explore implications of U.S. climate policy options and technological change on the electric power sector. Harmonized policy scenarios (including mass-based emissions limits and various power-sector-only carbon tax trajectories) across 16 models provide comparative assessments of potential impacts on electric sector investment and generation outcomes, emissions reductions, and economic implications. This paper compares results across these policy alternatives, including a variety of technological and natural gas price assumptions, and summarizes robust findings and areas of disagreement across participating models. Under a wide range of policy, technology, and market assumptions, model results suggest that future coal generation will decline relative to current levels while generation from natural gas, wind, and solar will increase, though the pace and extent of these changes vary by policy scenario, technological assumptions, region, and model. Climate policies can amplify trends already under way and make them less susceptible to future market changes. The model results provide useful insights to a range of stakeholders, but future research focused on intersectoral linkages in emission reductions (e.g., the role of electrification), effects of energy storage, and better coverage of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can improve insights even further. |
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