Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal.

Autor: Gibson LM; Department of Biology, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, U.S.A., Mychajliw AM; Department of Biology, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, U.S.A.; La Brea Tar Pits & Museum, 5801 Wilshire Boulevard, Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, CA, 90036, U.S.A., Leon Y; Grupo Jaragua, Calle El Vergel 33, Santo Domingo, 10107, Dominican Republic.; Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo, Avenida de Los Próceres #49, Santo Domingo, 10602, Dominican Republic., Rupp E; Grupo Jaragua, Calle El Vergel 33, Santo Domingo, 10107, Dominican Republic., Hadly EA; Department of Biology, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, U.S.A.; Woods Institute for the Environment, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, U.S.A.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Conserv Biol] 2019 Jun; Vol. 33 (3), pp. 500-510. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Feb 28.
DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13290
Abstrakt: Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975-2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km 2 corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.
(© 2019 Society for Conservation Biology.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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