Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity.

Autor:	Luginbuhl M; Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA maluginbuhl@ucdavis.edu., Rundle JB; Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 86501, USA., Turcotte DL; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences [Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci] 2018 Nov 26; Vol. 377 (2136). Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Nov 26.
DOI:	10.1098/rsta.2017.0397
Abstrakt:	A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is assumed that the rate of seismicity is constant in time and the rate of occurrence of small earthquakes is extrapolated to large earthquakes using Gutenberg-Richter scaling. We introduce nowcasting to extend RI forecasting to time-dependent seismicity, for example, during an aftershock sequence. Nowcasting uses 'natural time'; in seismicity natural time is the event count of small earthquakes. The event count for small earthquakes is extrapolated to larger earthquakes using Gutenberg-Richter scaling. We first review the concepts of natural time and nowcasting and then illustrate seismic nowcasting with three examples. We first consider the aftershock sequence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake on the San Andreas fault in California. Some earthquakes have higher rates of aftershock activity than other earthquakes of the same magnitude. Our approach allows the determination of the rate in real time during the aftershock sequence. We also consider two examples of induced earthquakes. Large injections of waste water from petroleum extraction have generated high rates of induced seismicity in Oklahoma. The extraction of natural gas from the Groningen gas field in The Netherlands has also generated very damaging earthquakes. In order to reduce the seismic activity, rates of injection and withdrawal have been reduced in these two cases. We show how nowcasting can be used to assess the success of these efforts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Statistical physics of fracture and earthquakes'. (© 2018 The Author(s).)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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