Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime.

Autor: Johansson DJA; Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden., Lucas PL; PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Weitzel M; Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany., Ahlgren EO; Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden., Bazaz AB; Public Systems Group, Wing 3, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015 India., Chen W; Energy, Environment, and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 China., den Elzen MGJ; PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Ghosh J; Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), University of Delhi, North Campus, Delhi, 110007 India., Grahn M; Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden., Liang QM; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China., Peterson S; Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany., Pradhan BK; Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), University of Delhi, North Campus, Delhi, 110007 India., van Ruijven BJ; PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80305 USA., Shukla PR; Public Systems Group, Wing 3, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015 India., van Vuuren DP; PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.; Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands., Wei YM; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change [Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang] 2015; Vol. 20 (8), pp. 1335-1359. Date of Electronic Publication: 2014 Feb 28.
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-014-9549-4
Abstrakt: This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010-2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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