Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing.

Autor:	Hamilton DS; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK. dsh224@cornell.edu.; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, 14853, NY, USA. dsh224@cornell.edu., Hantson S; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.; Geospatial Data Solutions Center, University of California Irvine, California, 92697, USA., Scott CE; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK., Kaplan JO; ARVE Research SARL, Pully, 1009, Switzerland.; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.; Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena, 07745, Germany., Pringle KJ; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK., Nieradzik LP; Institute for Physical Geography and Ecosystem Sciences, Lund University, Lund, S-223 62, Sweden.; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia., Rap A; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK., Folberth GA; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK., Spracklen DV; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK., Carslaw KS; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2018 Aug 09; Vol. 9 (1), pp. 3182. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Aug 09.
DOI:	10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9
Abstrakt:	Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we show that revised assumptions about pre-industrial fire activity result in significantly increased aerosol concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Revised global model simulations predict a 35% reduction in the calculated global mean cloud albedo forcing over the Industrial Era (1750-2000 CE) compared to estimates using emissions data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An estimated upper limit to pre-industrial fire emissions results in a much greater (91%) reduction in forcing. When compared to 26 other uncertain parameters or inputs in our model, pre-industrial fire emissions are by far the single largest source of uncertainty in pre-industrial aerosol concentrations, and hence in our understanding of the magnitude of the historical radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions.
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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