Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves.

Autor: Rangel TF; Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil. thiago.rangel@ufg.br robert.colwell@uconn.edu., Edwards NR; School of Environment, Earth, and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK., Holden PB; School of Environment, Earth, and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK., Diniz-Filho JAF; Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil., Gosling WD; School of Environment, Earth, and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK.; Department of Ecosystem and Landscape Dynamics, Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, Amsterdam, Netherlands., Coelho MTP; Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil., Cassemiro FAS; Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil.; Núcleo de Pesquisa em Ictiologia, Limnologia e Aquicultura. Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil., Rahbek C; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK., Colwell RK; Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil. thiago.rangel@ufg.br robert.colwell@uconn.edu.; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.; University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Science (New York, N.Y.) [Science] 2018 Jul 20; Vol. 361 (6399).
DOI: 10.1126/science.aar5452
Abstrakt: Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach of analytical models and traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, and extinction, driven by modeled climates of the past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed the impact of climate heterogeneity on diversification. The simulations identified regions and episodes of speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), and extinction (graves). Although the simulations had no target pattern and were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary maps for major taxa, confirming powerful roles for evolution and diversification driven by topography and climate.
(Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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