| Autor: |
Hirsch AL; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich Zurich Switzerland., Guillod BP; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich Zurich Switzerland.; Institute for Environmental Decisions Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich Zurich Switzerland., Seneviratne SI; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich Zurich Switzerland., Beyerle U; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich Zurich Switzerland., Boysen LR; Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Brovkin V; Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Davin EL; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich Zurich Switzerland., Doelman JC; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Den Haag The Netherlands., Kim H; Institute of Industrial Science The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan., Mitchell DM; School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK., Nitta T; Institute of Industrial Science The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan., Shiogama H; Center for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan., Sparrow S; Oxford e-Research Centre (OeRC) University of Oxford Oxford UK., Stehfest E; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Den Haag The Netherlands., van Vuuren DP; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Den Haag The Netherlands.; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands., Wilson S; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK.; Department of Meteorology, NCAS-CMS University of Reading Reading UK. |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Zdroj: |
Earth's future [Earths Future] 2018 Mar; Vol. 6 (3), pp. 396-409. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Mar 08. |
| DOI: |
10.1002/2017EF000744 |
| Abstrakt: |
The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts-land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways. |
| Databáze: |
MEDLINE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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