Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level.

Autor: Perry CT; Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. c.perry@exeter.ac.uk., Alvarez-Filip L; Biodiversity and Reef Conservation Laboratory, Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico., Graham NAJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK., Mumby PJ; Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia., Wilson SK; Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.; Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia., Kench PS; School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand., Manzello DP; Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA., Morgan KM; Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore., Slangen ABA; NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, Utrecht University, Yerseke, The Netherlands., Thomson DP; CSIRO, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia., Januchowski-Hartley F; 2UMR 248 MARBEC/UMR250 ENTROPIE, UM2-CNRS-IRD-IFREMER-UM1, Université Montpellier 2, Montpellier, France., Smithers SG; School of Environmental Management, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia., Steneck RS; School of Marine Sciences, Darling Marine Centre, University of Maine, Walpole, ME, USA., Carlton R; Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation, Landover, MD, USA., Edinger EN; Department of Geography, Memorial University, St John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.; Department of Biology, Memorial University, St John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada., Enochs IC; Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA.; Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA., Estrada-Saldívar N; Biodiversity and Reef Conservation Laboratory, Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico., Haywood MDE; CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere Division, Queensland, Bioscience Precinct, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia., Kolodziej G; Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA.; Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA., Murphy GN; Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK., Pérez-Cervantes E; Biodiversity and Reef Conservation Laboratory, Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico., Suchley A; Biodiversity and Reef Conservation Laboratory, Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico., Valentino L; Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA.; Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA., Boenish R; University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences, Orono, ME, USA., Wilson M; Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA., Macdonald C; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.; Marine Biology and Aquaculture Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature [Nature] 2018 Jun; Vol. 558 (7710), pp. 396-400. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Jun 14.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z
Abstrakt: Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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