| Autor: |
Möstl C; Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria., Amerstorfer T; Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria., Palmerio E; Department of Physics University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland., Isavnin A; Department of Physics University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland., Farrugia CJ; Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire Durham NH USA., Lowder C; Department of Mathematical Sciences Durham University Durham UK.; Southwest Research Institute Boulder CO USA., Winslow RM; Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire Durham NH USA., Donnerer JM; Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria., Kilpua EKJ; Department of Physics University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland., Boakes PD; Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria. |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Zdroj: |
Space weather : the international journal of research & applications [Space Weather] 2018 Mar; Vol. 16 (3), pp. 216-229. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Mar 07. |
| DOI: |
10.1002/2017SW001735 |
| Abstrakt: |
Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3-D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward-pointing magnetic fields. Here we demonstrate in a proof-of-concept way a new approach to predict the southward field B z in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semiempirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (Three-Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun-Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 9-13 July 2013. Three-Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3-D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft, and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left-handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30° and a deflection angle of 20° is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation. |
| Databáze: |
MEDLINE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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