Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico.

Autor:	Haer T; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Botzen WJW; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands wouter.botzen@vu.nl.; Utrecht University School of Economics, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands.; Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA., van Roomen V; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Connor H; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Zavala-Hidalgo J; Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510 Ciudad de México, CDMX, Mexico., Eilander DM; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.; Deltares, 2600 MH, Delft, The Netherlands., Ward PJ; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences [Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci] 2018 Jun 13; Vol. 376 (2121).
DOI:	10.1098/rsta.2017.0329
Abstrakt:	Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. (© 2018 The Author(s).)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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