Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Autor: Kebede AS; Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK. Electronic address: ask2g08@soton.ac.uk., Nicholls RJ; Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK., Allan A; Centre for Water Law, Policy, and Science, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 HN, UK., Arto I; Basque Centre for Climate Change, Alameda Urquijo 4, 48008 Bilbao, Spain., Cazcarro I; Basque Centre for Climate Change, Alameda Urquijo 4, 48008 Bilbao, Spain; ARAID (Aragonese Agency for Research and Development), University of Zaragoza, Gran Vía, 2, 50005 Zaragoza, Spain., Fernandes JA; AZTI, Herrera Kaia, Portualdea, z/g., Pasaia, Gipuzkoa 20110, Spain; Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK., Hill CT; GeoData, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK., Hutton CW; GeoData, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK., Kay S; Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK., Lázár AN; Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK., Macadam I; Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK., Palmer M; Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK., Suckall N; Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK., Tompkins EL; Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK., Vincent K; Kulima Integrated Development Solutions (Pty) Ltd, South Africa., Whitehead PW; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2018 Sep 01; Vol. 635, pp. 659-672. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Apr 24.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.368
Abstrakt: To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.
(Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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