Maternal exposure to ambient PM 10 during pregnancy increases the risk of congenital heart defects: Evidence from machine learning models.

Autor: Ren Z; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China., Zhu J; National Office of Maternal and Child Health Surveillance of China, Department of Obstetrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China; National Center for Birth Defect Monitoring of China, Department of Pediatrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China., Gao Y; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China., Yin Q; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China., Hu M; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China., Dai L; National Office of Maternal and Child Health Surveillance of China, Department of Obstetrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China., Deng C; National Office of Maternal and Child Health Surveillance of China, Department of Obstetrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China., Yi L; National Center for Birth Defect Monitoring of China, Department of Pediatrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China., Deng K; National Center for Birth Defect Monitoring of China, Department of Pediatrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China., Wang Y; National Office of Maternal and Child Health Surveillance of China, Department of Obstetrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China., Li X; National Center for Birth Defect Monitoring of China, Department of Pediatrics, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China; Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children, Sichuan University, Ministry of Education, China. Electronic address: iiaoong@163.com., Wang J; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. Electronic address: wangjf@lreis.ac.cn.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2018 Jul 15; Vol. 630, pp. 1-10. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Feb 19.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.181
Abstrakt: Previous research suggested an association between maternal exposure to ambient air pollutants and risk of congenital heart defects (CHDs), though the effects of particulate matter ≤10μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10 ) on CHDs are inconsistent. We used two machine learning models (i.e., random forest (RF) and gradient boosting (GB)) to investigate the non-linear effects of PM 10 exposure during the critical time window, weeks 3-8 in pregnancy, on risk of CHDs. From 2009 through 2012, we carried out a population-based birth cohort study on 39,053 live-born infants in Beijing. RF and GB models were used to calculate odds ratios for CHDs associated with increase in PM 10 exposure, adjusting for maternal and perinatal characteristics. Maternal exposure to PM 10 was identified as the primary risk factor for CHDs in all machine learning models. We observed a clear non-linear effect of maternal exposure to PM 10 on CHDs risk. Compared to 40μgm -3 , the following odds ratios resulted: 1) 92μgm -3 [RF: 1.16 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.28); GB: 1.26 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.35)]; 2) 111μgm -3 [RF: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.14); GB: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.08)]; 3) 124μgm -3 [RF: 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.10); GB: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.02)]; 4) 190μgm -3 [RF: 1.29 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.44); GB: 1.71 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.17)]. Overall, both machine models showed an association between maternal exposure to ambient PM 10 and CHDs in Beijing, highlighting the need for non-linear methods to investigate dose-response relationships.
(Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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