| Autor: |
Silva RA; Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA., West JJ; Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA., Lamarque JF; NCAR Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA., Shindell DT; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA., Collins WJ; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom., Dalsoren S; CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Faluvegi G; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute, New York, New York, USA., Folberth G; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom., Horowitz LW; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA., Nagashima T; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan., Naik V; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA., Rumbold ST; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom., Sudo K; Earth and Environmental Science, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan., Takemura T; Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan., Bergmann D; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA., Cameron-Smith P; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA., Cionni I; Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l'Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Bologna, Italy., Doherty RM; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom., Eyring V; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany., Josse B; GAME/CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS-Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse, France., MacKenzie IA; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom., Plummer D; Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada., Righi M; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany., Stevenson DS; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom., Strode S; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA.; Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA., Szopa S; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France., Zeng G; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand. |
| Abstrakt: |
Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM 2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths/year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382,000 (121,000 to 728,000) deaths/year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths/year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM 2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths/year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM 2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths/year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths/year in 2100 for the four RCPs, due to the combined effect of decreases in PM 2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease. |
