Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research.

Autor: French S; Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK., Argyris N; School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK., Haywood SM; Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxfordshire, UK., Hort MC; The Met Office, Exeter, Devon, UK., Smith JQ; Alan Turing Institute, and, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, British Library, London, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Risk Anal] 2019 Jan; Vol. 39 (1), pp. 9-16. Date of Electronic Publication: 2017 Oct 23.
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12904
Abstrakt: In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.
(© 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:
Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje