| Autor: |
Lourenço J; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Maia de Lima M; Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCRUZ, SalvadorBahia, Brazil., Faria NR; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Walker A; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Kraemer MU; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Villabona-Arenas CJ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMI 233, INSERM U1175 and Institut de Biologie Computationnelle, LIRMM, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France., Lambert B; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Marques de Cerqueira E; Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health, Department of Health, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de SantanaBahia, Brazil., Pybus OG; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Alcantara LC; Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCRUZ, SalvadorBahia, Brazil., Recker M; Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom. |
| Abstrakt: |
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting. |
