Climate negotiators' and scientists' assessments of the climate negotiations.

Autor: Dannenberg A; Department of Economics, University of Kassel, Nora-Platiel-Straße 4, 34109 Kassel, Germany and Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg; Box 640, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden., Zitzelsberger S; Department of Economics, University of Kassel, 34109 Kassel, Germany., Tavoni A; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London WC2A2AE, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature climate change [Nat Clim Chang] 2017 Jun; Vol. 7 (6), pp. 437-442. Date of Electronic Publication: 2017 May 08.
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3288
Abstrakt: Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyze the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of more than 600 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centered on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who are more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals' perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations.
Competing Interests: Competing Financial Interests statement: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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