Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa: a mathematical modelling study.

Autor:	Sharma A; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: asharma4@cdc.gov., Hill A; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA., Kurbatova E; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA., van der Walt M; South Africa Medical Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa., Kvasnovsky C; University of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore, MD, USA., Tupasi TE; Tropical Disease Foundation, Manila, Philippines., Caoili JC; Tropical Disease Foundation, Manila, Philippines., Gler MT; Tropical Disease Foundation, Manila, Philippines., Volchenkov GV; Vladimir Oblast Tuberculosis Dispensary, Vladimir, Russia., Kazennyy BY; Orel Oblast Tuberculosis Dispensary, Orel, Russia., Demikhova OV; Central Tuberculosis Research Institute, Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Moscow, Russia., Bayona J; Socios en Salud Sucursal, Lima, Peru., Contreras C; Socios en Salud Sucursal, Lima, Peru., Yagui M; National Institute of Health, Lima, Peru., Leimane V; Riga East University Hospital Centre of Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases, Latvia., Cho SN; International Tuberculosis Research Center, Changwon and Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea., Kim HJ; Korean Institute of Tuberculosis, Seoul, South Korea., Kliiman K; Tartu University Hospital, Tartu, Estonia., Akksilp S; Ministry of Public Health, Bangkok, Thailand., Jou R; Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan., Ershova J; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA., Dalton T; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA., Cegielski P; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Lancet. Infectious diseases [Lancet Infect Dis] 2017 Jul; Vol. 17 (7), pp. 707-715. Date of Electronic Publication: 2017 May 09.
DOI:	10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30247-5
Abstrakt:	Background: Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Methods: We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Findings: The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4-16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5-11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0-35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0-7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1-12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0-14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8-14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5-14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000-40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040. Interpretation: MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. Funding: US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination. (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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