Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

Autor:	Clyde MA, Palmieri Weber R, Iversen ES, Poole EM, Doherty JA, Goodman MT, Ness RB, Risch HA, Rossing MA, Terry KL, Wentzensen N, Whittemore AS, Anton-Culver H, Bandera EV, Berchuck A, Carney ME, Cramer DW, Cunningham JM, Cushing-Haugen KL, Edwards RP, Fridley BL, Goode EL, Lurie G, McGuire V, Modugno F, Moysich KB, Olson SH, Pearce CL, Pike MC, Rothstein JH, Sellers TA, Sieh W, Stram D, Thompson PJ, Vierkant RA, Wicklund KG, Wu AH, Ziogas A, Tworoger SS, Schildkraut JM
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	American journal of epidemiology [Am J Epidemiol] 2016 Oct 15; Vol. 184 (8), pp. 579-589. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Oct 03.
DOI:	10.1093/aje/kww091
Abstrakt:	Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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