Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe.

Autor:	Rocklöv J; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden. Electronic address: joacim.rocklov@umu.se., Quam MB; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden., Sudre B; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden., German M; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada., Kraemer MUG; Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford; Oxford, UK., Brady O; Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford; Oxford, UK., Bogoch II; Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Divisions of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada., Liu-Helmersson J; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden., Wilder-Smith A; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden; Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore., Semenza JC; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden., Ong M; Geomatics Program, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada., Aaslav KK; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden., Khan K; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	EBioMedicine [EBioMedicine] 2016 Jul; Vol. 9, pp. 250-256. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Jun 10.
DOI:	10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.009
Abstrakt:	The explosive Zika virus epidemic in the Americas is amplifying spread of this emerging pathogen into previously unaffected regions of the world, including Europe (Gulland, 2016), where local populations are immunologically naïve. As summertime approaches in the northern hemisphere, Aedes mosquitoes in Europe may find suitable climatic conditions to acquire and subsequently transmit Zika virus from viremic travellers to local populations. While Aedes albopictus has proven to be a vector for the transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Europe (Delisle et al., 2015; ECDC, n.d.) there is growing experimental and ecological evidence to suggest that it may also be competent for Zika virus(Chouin-Carneiro et al., 2016; Grard et al., 2014; Li et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2013). Here we analyze and overlay the monthly flows of airline travellers arriving into European cities from Zika affected areas across the Americas, the predicted monthly estimates of the basic reproduction number of Zika virus in areas where Aedes mosquito populations reside in Europe (Aedes aegypti in Madeira, Portugal and Ae. albopictus in continental Europe), and human populations living within areas where mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus may be possible. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and possible spread within Europe to inform the efficient use of human disease surveillance, vector surveillance and control, and public education resources. (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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