Integration of geometric consistency contributory factors in three-leg junctions collision prediction models of Portuguese two-lane national highways.

Autor: da Costa JO; Academic Centre of Agreste Region (CAA), University Federal of Pernambuco, Brazil. Electronic address: jocilene.mt@gmail.com., Jacques MA; Postgraduate Program in Transportation (PPGT-UnB), University of Brasilia, Brazil. Electronic address: mapjacques@gmail.com., Soares FE; University of Minho, Portugal. Electronic address: a61864@alumni.uminho.pt., Freitas EF; Territory, Environment and Research Centre (C-TAC), University of Minho, Portugal. Electronic address: efreitas@civil.uminho.pt.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Accident; analysis and prevention [Accid Anal Prev] 2016 Jan; Vol. 86, pp. 59-67. Date of Electronic Publication: 2015 Oct 26.
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2015.10.003
Abstrakt: This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctions' area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.
(Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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