Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Autor:	Murray CJ; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Ortblad KF; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Guinovart C; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Lim SS; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Wolock TM; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Roberts DA; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Dansereau EA; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Graetz N; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Barber RM; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Brown JC; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Wang H; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Duber HC; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Naghavi M; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Dicker D; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Dandona L; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India., Salomon JA; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA., Heuton KR; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Foreman K; Imperial College London, London, UK., Phillips DE; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Fleming TD; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Flaxman AD; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Phillips BK; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Johnson EK; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Coggeshall MS; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Abd-Allah F; Faculty of Medicine, Cairo-University, Cairo, Egypt., Abera SF; College of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Mekelle, Ethiopia., Abraham JP; University of Texas School of Medicine San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA., Abubakar I; University College London, London, UK., Abu-Raddad LJ; Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar., Abu-Rmeileh NM; Institute of Community and Public Health-Birzeti University, Ramallah, West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory., Achoki T; Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana., Adeyemo AO; Evidence For Action (MamaYe), Freetown, Western Area, Sierra Leone., Adou AK; Association Ivoirienne Pour Le Bien Etre Familial, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire., Adsuar JC; University of Extremadura, Cáceres, Spain., Agardh EE; Institution of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden., Akena D; Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda., Al Kahbouri MJ; Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman., Alasfoor D; Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman., Albittar MI; Independent, Damascus, Syria., Alcalá-Cerra G; Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Salud y Neurociencias (CISNEURO), Cartagena de Indias, Colombia., Alegretti MA; Facultad de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Social, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay., Alemu ZA; Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia., Alfonso-Cristancho R; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Alhabib S; National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia., Ali R; University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Alla F; School of Public Health, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France., Allen PJ; Ministry of Health, Belmopan, Cayo, Belize., Alsharif U; Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany., Alvarez E; Government, Madrid, Spain., Alvis-Guzman N; Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia., Amankwaa AA; Albany State University, Albany, GA, USA., Amare AT; Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia., Amini H; Kurdistan Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Iran., Ammar W; Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon., Anderson BO; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Antonio CA; College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines., Anwari P; UNFPA, Kabul, Afghanistan., Arnlöv J; Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden., Arsenijevic VS; Institute of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia., Artaman A; Median Inc, Windsor, ON, Canada., Asghar RJ; South Asian Public Health Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan., Assadi R; Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran., Atkins LS; Ministry of Health, Wellness, Human Services and Gender Relations, Castries, St. Lucia., Badawi A; Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada., Balakrishnan K; Sri Ramachandra University, Chennai, India., Banerjee A; University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK., Basu S; Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Beardsley J; Oxford University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Bekele T; Madawalabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia., Bell ML; Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA., Bernabe E; King's College London, London, UK., Beyene TJ; Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Bhala N; Wellington Hospital, Wellington, New Zealand., Bhalla A; Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India., Bhutta ZA; Aga Khan University Medical Center, Nairobi, Kenya., Abdulhak AB; University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO, USA., Binagwaho A; Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda., Blore JD; University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Basara BB; General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey., Bose D; World Bank, Washington, DC, USA., Brainin M; Danube-University Krems, Krems, Austria., Breitborde N; University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA., Castañeda-Orjuela CA; Colombian National Health Observatory, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogota, Colombia., Catalá-López F; Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain., Chadha VK; National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore, India., Chang JC; National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan., Chiang PP; General Practice and Primary Health Care Academic Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Chuang TW; Department of Parasitology, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Center for International Tropical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan., Colomar M; UNICEM, Montevideo, Uruguay., Cooper LT; Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA., Cooper C; MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK., Courville KJ; Hospital Dr. Gustavo N. Collado, Chitre, Herrera, Panama., Cowie BC; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, North Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Criqui MH; University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA., Dandona R; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India., Dayama A; Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA., De Leo D; Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia., Degenhardt L; University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Del Pozo-Cruz B; University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand., Deribe K; Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Des Jarlais DC; Beth Israel Medical Center, New York, NY, USA., Dessalegn M; Africa Medical and Research Foundation in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Dharmaratne SD; University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka., Dilmen U; Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey., Ding EL; Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA., Driscoll TR; Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Durrani AM; National Institutes of Health, Montgomery Village, MD, USA., Ellenbogen RG; Harborview and University of Washington Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA., Ermakov SP; The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia., Esteghamati A; Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Faraon EJ; College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines., Farzadfar F; Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Fereshtehnejad SM; Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Stockholm, Sweden., Fijabi DO; Heller Graduate School, Waltham, MA, USA., Forouzanfar MH; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Fra Paleo U; University of Extremadura, Cáceres, Spain., Gaffikin L; Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA., Gamkrelidze A; National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia., Gankpé FG; Clinique Coopérative de Parakou, Parakou, Borgou, Benin., Geleijnse JM; Division of Human Nutrition, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands., Gessner BD; Agence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, France., Gibney KB; Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Ginawi IA; College of Medicine, University of Hail, Hail, Saudi Arabia., Glaser EL; Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Waltham, MA, USA., Gona P; University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA., Goto A; Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Gouda HN; University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia., Gugnani HC; Saint James School of Medicine, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles., Gupta R; Fortis Escorts Hospital, Jaipur, India., Gupta R; Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA., Hafezi-Nejad N; Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Hamadeh RR; Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain., Hammami M; Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA., Hankey GJ; School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia., Harb HL; Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon., Haro JM; Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, University of Barcelona, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain., Havmoeller R; Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden., Hay SI; University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Hedayati MT; Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran., Pi IB; National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico., Hoek HW; Parnassia Psychiatric Institute, The Hague, Netherlands., Hornberger JC; Cedar Associates, Menlo Park, CA, USA., Hosgood HD; Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA., Hotez PJ; Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA., Hoy DG; School of Population Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia., Huang JJ; Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA., Iburg KM; Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark., Idrisov BT; Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA., Innos K; National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia., Jacobsen KH; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA., Jeemon P; Centre for Chronic Disease Control, New Delhi, India., Jensen PN; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Jha V; Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India., Jiang G; Tianjin Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China., Jonas JB; Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim of the University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany., Juel K; The National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark., Kan H; Fudan University, Shanghai, China., Kankindi I; Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda., Karam NE; University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon., Karch A; Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hannover-Braunschweig site, Germany., Karema CK; Malaria & Other Parasitic Diseases Division, Kigali, Rwanda., Kaul A; Oklahoma State University, Tulsa, OK, USA., Kawakami N; School of Public Health, Tokyo, Japan., Kazi DS; University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA., Kemp AH; University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Kengne AP; South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa., Keren A; Cardiology, Hadassah Ein Kerem University Hospital, Jerusalem, Israel., Kereselidze M; National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia., Khader YS; Jordan University of Science and Technology, Al-Ramtha, Jordan., Khalifa SE; Supreme Council of Health, Doha, Qatar., Khan EA; Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan., Khang YH; Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea., Khonelidze I; National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia., Kinfu Y; University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia., Kinge JM; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Knibbs L; University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia., Kokubo Y; Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, Japan., Kosen S; Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy & Humanities, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia., Defo BK; University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada., Kulkarni VS; Arkansas State University, Jonesboro, AR, USA., Kulkarni C; Rajrajeshwari Medical College & Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India., Kumar K; International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India., Kumar RB; Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, Haryana, India., Kumar GA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India., Kwan GF; Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA., Lai T; Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia., Balaji AL; University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Lam H; Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines., Lan Q; National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA., Lansingh VC; IAPB and Vision 2020 LA, Weston, FL, USA., Larson HJ; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK., Larsson A; Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden., Lee JT; Korea University, Seoul, South Korea., Leigh J; University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Leinsalu M; National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia., Leung R; University at Albany, The State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, USA., Li Y; Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA., Li Y; Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA., De Lima GM; Unidade Local de Saude de Matosinhos, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal., Lin HH; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan., Lipshultz SE; Wayne State University, Miami, FL, USA., Liu S; National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China., Liu Y; Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA., Lloyd BK; Eastern Health Clinical School, VIC, Australia; Turning Point, Eastern Health, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia., Lotufo PA; University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Machado VM; Northern Region Health Administration, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal., Maclachlan JH; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, North Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Magis-Rodriguez C; Centro Nacional para la Prevención y el Control del VIH/SIDA, Mexico City, Mexico., Majdan M; Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia., Mapoma CC; University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia., Marcenes W; Queen Mary, University of London, London, UK., Marzan MB; University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Medical Center, Quezon City, Philippines., Masci JR; Elmhurst Hospital Center, Mount Sinai Services, Elmhurst, NY, USA., Mashal MT; Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan., Mason-Jones AJ; University of York, York, UK., Mayosi BM; University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa., Mazorodze TT; AIDC EC, Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, South Africa., Mckay AC; EmergentCorp, Belize City, Belize., Meaney PA; Pereleman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA., Mehndiratta MM; Janakpuri Superspecialty Hospital, New Delhi, India., Mejia-Rodriguez F; National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico., Melaku YA; Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia., Memish ZA; Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia., Mendoza W; UNFPA, Lima, Peru., Miller TR; Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton MD, USA; Centre for Population Health Research, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia., Mills EJ; University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Mohammad KA; University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq., Mokdad AH; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Mola GL; University of Papua New Guinea, Port Moresby, NCD, Papua New Guinea., Monasta L; Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS 'Burlo Garofolo,' Trieste, Italy., Montico M; Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS 'Burlo Garofolo,' Trieste, Italy., Moore AR; University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA., Mori R; National Center for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan., Moturi WN; Egerton University, Egerton, Rift Valley, Kenya., Mukaigawara M; Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan., Murthy KS; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India., Naheed A; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh., Naidoo KS; University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa., Naldi L; Azienda Ospedaliera papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy., Nangia V; Suraj Eye Institute, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India., Narayan KM; Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA., Nash D; School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA., Nejjari C; Faculty of Medicine, Fez, Morocco., Nelson RG; National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Phoenix, AZ, USA., Neupane SP; Norwegian Center for Addiction Research (SERAF), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Newton CR; Kenya Medical Research Institute Wellcome Trust Programme, Kilifi, Kenya., Ng M; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA., Nisar MI; Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan., Nolte S; Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany., Norheim OF; University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway., Nowaseb V; Polytechnic of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia., Nyakarahuka L; Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda., Oh IH; Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Korea., Ohkubo T; Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Olusanya BO; Center for Healthy Start Initiative, Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria., Omer SB; Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA., Opio JN; Lira District Local Government, Lira Municipal Council, Northern Uganda, Uganda., Orisakwe OE; Toxicology Unit, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria., Pandian JD; Christian Medical College Ludhiana, Ludhiana, India., Papachristou C; Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany., Caicedo AJ; Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia., Patten SB; University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada., Paul VK; AIIMS, New Delhi, India., Pavlin BI; Independent, Waigani, NCD, Papua New Guinea., Pearce N; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK., Pereira DM; 3B's Research Group-Biomaterials, Biodegradables and Biomimetics, University of Minho, Headquarters of the European Institute of Excellence on Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine and ICVS/3B's-PT Government Associate Laboratory, Braga, Portugal., Pervaiz A; Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan., Pesudovs K; Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia., Petzold M; Centre for Applied Biostatistics, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden., Pourmalek F; University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada., Qato D; College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA., Quezada AD; National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico., Quistberg DA; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Rafay A; Contech Intl., Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan., Rahimi K; University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Rahimi-Movaghar V; Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Ur Rahman S; Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar., Raju M; University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA., Rana SM; Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan., Razavi H; Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, CO, USA., Reilly RQ; Private consultant, Cairns, QLD, Australia., Remuzzi G; IRCCS Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Centro Anna Maria Astori, Bergamo, Italy., Richardus JH; Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands., Ronfani L; Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS 'Burlo Garofolo,' Trieste, Italy., Roy N; BARC Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India., Sabin N; Rwanda Bio-Medical Center, Kigali, Rwanda., Saeedi MY; Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia., Sahraian MA; MS Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Samonte GM; National HIV/AIDS & STI Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit, National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health, Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines., Sawhney M; Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA., Schneider IJ; Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil., Schwebel DC; University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA., Seedat S; Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa., Sepanlou SG; Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Servan-Mori EE; National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico., Sheikhbahaei S; Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Shibuya K; University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan., Shin HH; Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Shiue I; Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK., Shivakoti R; Center for Clinical Global Health Education, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA., Sigfusdottir ID; Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland., Silberberg DH; University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA., Silva AP; Instituto Nacional de Epidemiología Dr Juan H Jara, Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina., Simard EP; Surveillance and Health Services Research Program American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA., Singh JA; University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA., Skirbekk V; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Sliwa K; Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa., Soneji S; Dartmouth College, Lebanon, NH, USA., Soshnikov SS; Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia., Sreeramareddy CT; Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia., Stathopoulou VK; Centre Hospitalier Nord Deux-Sevres, Bressuire, France., Stroumpoulis K; KEELPNO (Centre for Disease Control, Greece, dispatched to 'Alexandra' General Hospital of Athens), Athens, Greece., Swaminathan S; National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India., Sykes BL; Department of Criminology, Law and Society (and Sociology), University of California-Irvine, Chicago, IL, USA., Tabb KM; University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA., Talongwa RT; Ministry of Health-MINSANTE, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon., Tenkorang EY; Memorial University, St John's, NL, Canada., Terkawi AS; Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia., Thomson AJ; Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, BC, Canada., Thorne-Lyman AL; The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA., Towbin JA; Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA., Traebert J; University of Southern Santa Catarina, Palhoça, Santa Catarina, Brazil., Tran BX; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA., Dimbuene ZT; Department of Population Sciences and Development, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo., Tsilimbaris M; Department of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece., Uchendu US; Department of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC, USA., Ukwaja KN; Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakailiki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria., Uzun SB; Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey., Vallely AJ; The Kirby Institute, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Vasankari TJ; UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland., Venketasubramanian N; Neuroscience Centre, Raffles Hospital, Singapore, Singapore., Violante FS; University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy., Vlassov VV; Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia., Vollset SE; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway., Waller S; Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA., Wallin MT; VA Medical Center and Georgetown University Neurology Department, Washington, DC, USA., Wang L; National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China., Wang X; Shandong University Affiliated Jinan Central Hospital, Jinan, China., Wang Y; National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China., Weichenthal S; Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Weiderpass E; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Stockholm, Sweden., Weintraub RG; University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Westerman R; University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany., White RA; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Disease Control and Department of Health Statistics, Division of Epidemiology, Oslo, Norway., Wilkinson JD; University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA., Williams TN; Imperial College London, London, UK., Woldeyohannes SM; Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia., Wong JQ; Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines., Xu G; Nanjing University School of Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China., Yang YC; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA., Yano Y; Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke, Tochigi, Japan., Yentur GK; General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey., Yip P; The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong., Yonemoto N; National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodira, Tokyo, Japan., Yoon SJ; Korea University, Seoul, South Korea., Younis M; Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA., Yu C; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China., Jin KY; TCM MEDICAL TK SDN BHD, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia., El Sayed Zaki M; Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt., Zhao Y; Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China., Zheng Y; Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China., Zhou M; National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China., Zhu J; National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China., Zou XN; Cancer Institute/Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China., Lopez AD; University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Vos T; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Lancet (London, England) [Lancet] 2014 Sep 13; Vol. 384 (9947), pp. 1005-70. Date of Electronic Publication: 2014 Jul 22.
DOI:	10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
Abstrakt:	Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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