| Autor: |
Ariely D; School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, USA., Au WT, Bender RH, Budescu DV, Dietz CB, Gu H, Wallsten TS, Zauberman G |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Zdroj: |
Journal of experimental psychology. Applied [J Exp Psychol Appl] 2000 Jun; Vol. 6 (2), pp. 130-47. |
| DOI: |
10.1037//1076-898x.6.2.130 |
| Abstrakt: |
The average probability estimate of J > 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average of conditionally pairwise independent estimates will be highly diagnostic, and Prediction 2 is that the average of dependent estimates (differing only by independent error terms) may be well calibrated. Prediction 3 contrasts between- and within-subject averaging. Results demonstrate the predictions' robustness by showing the extent to which they hold as the information conditions depart from the ideal and as J increases. Practical consequences are that (a) substantial improvement can be obtained with as few as 2-6 judges and (b) the decision maker can estimate the nature of the expected improvement by considering the information conditions. |
| Databáze: |
MEDLINE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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