| Autor: |
Xu, Mengyang1 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Ziyu1 (AUTHOR), Yue, Chao1,2 (AUTHOR) chaoyuejoy@gmail.com, Zhao, Jie1,3 (AUTHOR) sxuzhaojie@163.com, Zhang, Pengyi1 (AUTHOR), Wang, Mengyu1 (AUTHOR), Wang, Jiaming1 (AUTHOR), Zhao, Hongfei1 (AUTHOR), Liu, Jinyue2 (AUTHOR), Tang, Xianhui4 (AUTHOR), He, Junhao2 (AUTHOR) |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Global & Planetary Change. Jul2024, Vol. 238, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. |
| Abstrakt: |
China is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which requires that CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes (referred to as CO 2 emissions) be offset by carbon uptake through its terrestrial ecosystems. This study quantified the contributions of China's terrestrial carbon sinks to offsetting CO 2 emissions over 2001–2060 by combining vegetation model simulations and multiple datasets of CO 2 emission projections across different future emission scenarios. Our results showed that China's CO 2 emissions will increase from 0.99 Pg C yr−1 in 2001 to >4 Pg C yr−1 in 2060 under the SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios; however, for SSP1–2.6, CO 2 emissions will eventually decrease to 0.50 Pg C yr−1. Conversely, China's net terrestrial carbon sink was projected to increase from −0.14 Pg C yr−1 (2000s) to [−0.35, −0.40] Pg C yr−1 (2050s) under different SSP scenarios based on vegetation modelling. As a result, China's net terrestrial carbon sink will contribute only approximately 10% to offsetting its CO 2 emissions under scenarios SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5, implying an almost certain failure of the carbon-neutral strategy. In contrast, under scenario SSP1–2.6, approximately 50%–80% of CO 2 emissions can be offset by the terrestrial carbon sink by 2060, in line with the possible success of the carbon-neutral goal. This study underscores the critical role of terrestrial carbon sink in achieving carbon neutrality in China and hightlights the remaining challenges for further reducing CO 2 emissions. • China's net terrestrial carbon sink will increase from −0.14 (2000s) to [−0.35, −0.40] Pg C yr−1 (2050s). • China's CO 2 emissions will decrease to 0.50 Pg C by 2060 in SSP1–2.6. • China's net terrestrial carbon sink will offset 50%–80% of CO 2 emissions by 2060 in SSP1–2.6. • It is possible for China to achieve carbon neutrality under the SSP1–2.6 scenario. • China's net terrestrial carbon sink will only offset about 10% of the CO 2 emissions in SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
GreenFILE |
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Full Text from ScienceDirect