Maternal exposure to ambient PM10 during pregnancy increases the risk of congenital heart defects: Evidence from machine learning models.

Autor: Ren, Zhoupeng1, Zhu, Jun2,3, Gao, Yanfang1, Yin, Qian1, Hu, Maogui1, Dai, Li2, Deng, Changfei2, Yi, Lin3, Deng, Kui3, Wang, Yanping2, Li, Xiaohong3,4 iiaoong@163.com, Wang, Jinfeng1,5 wangjf@lreis.ac.cn
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Zdroj: Science of the Total Environment. Jul2018, Vol. 630, p1-10. 10p.
Abstrakt: Previous research suggested an association between maternal exposure to ambient air pollutants and risk of congenital heart defects (CHDs), though the effects of particulate matter ≤10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10 ) on CHDs are inconsistent. We used two machine learning models (i.e., random forest (RF) and gradient boosting (GB)) to investigate the non-linear effects of PM 10 exposure during the critical time window, weeks 3–8 in pregnancy, on risk of CHDs. From 2009 through 2012, we carried out a population-based birth cohort study on 39,053 live-born infants in Beijing. RF and GB models were used to calculate odds ratios for CHDs associated with increase in PM 10 exposure, adjusting for maternal and perinatal characteristics. Maternal exposure to PM 10 was identified as the primary risk factor for CHDs in all machine learning models. We observed a clear non-linear effect of maternal exposure to PM 10 on CHDs risk. Compared to 40 μg m −3 , the following odds ratios resulted: 1) 92 μg m −3 [RF: 1.16 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.28); GB: 1.26 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.35)]; 2) 111 μg m −3 [RF: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.14); GB: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.08)]; 3) 124 μg m −3 [RF: 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.10); GB: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.02)]; 4) 190 μg m −3 [RF: 1.29 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.44); GB: 1.71 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.17)]. Overall, both machine models showed an association between maternal exposure to ambient PM 10 and CHDs in Beijing, highlighting the need for non-linear methods to investigate dose-response relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: GreenFILE
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