Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

Autor:	Semenza, Jan C.¹ Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu, Trinanes, Joaquin^2,3,4, Lohr, Wolfgang^5,6, Sudre, Bertrand⁷, Löfdahl, Margareta⁸, Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime^9,10, Nichols, Gordon L.^11,12,13, Rocklöv, Joacim^5,6
Předmět:	Climate change Ecology Environmental monitoring Ocean *Temperature Confidence intervals Probability theory Research funding Seasons Time series analysis Logistic regression analysis Relative medical risk Vibrio infections Osmolar concentration Descriptive statistics Odds ratio Diagnosis Disease risk factors
Zdroj:	Environmental Health Perspectives. Oct2017, Vol. 125 Issue 10, p1-12. 12p. 1 Chart, 4 Graphs, 5 Maps.
Abstrakt:	BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk ðRRÞ=1:14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0:024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze:	GreenFILE
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