| Popis: |
In order to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets, the Great Britain (GB) future electricity supply will include a higher fraction of non-dispatchable generation, increasing opportunities for demand side management (DSM) to maintain a supply/demand balance. Domestic electricity demand is approximately a third of total GB demand and has the potential to provide a significant demand side resource. An optimization model of UK electricity generation has been developed with an objective function to minimize total system cost (£m/year). The models show that dispatchable output falls from 77% of total output in 2012 to 69% in 2020, 41% in 2030 and 28% in 2050, supporting the need for increased levels of future DSM. Domestic demand has been categorised to identify flexible loads (electric space and water heating, cold appliances and wet appliances), and projected to 2030. Annual flexible demand in 2030 amounts to 64.3TWh though the amount of practically available demand varies significantly on a diurnal, weekly and seasonal basis. Daily load profiles show practically available demand on two sample days at three sample time points (05:00, 08:00 and 17:30) varies between 838MW and 6,150MW. Access to flexible demand for DSM purposes is dependent on the active involvement of domestic consumers and/or their acceptance of appliance automation. Analysis of a major quantitative survey and qualitative workshop dataset shows that 49% of respondents don’t think very much or not at all about their electricity use. This has implications for the effectiveness of DSM measures which rely on consumers to actively modify behaviour in response to a signal. Whilst appliance automation can be a practical solution to realising demand side potential, many consumers are reluctant to allow remote access. Consumers are motivated by financial incentives though the low value of individual appliance consumption limits the effectiveness of solely financial incentives. A range of incentives would be required to encourage a wide cross-section of consumers to engage with their electricity consumption. |
