Three Essays on Free Trade Agreement
| Autor: | LIN, WEN-CHENG, 林文晟 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 105 The research focuses on three free trade agreements that discuss different trade policies’ impact on domestic economy. The first is economy-wide impact assessment of multilateral liberalization. Based on signing of new age free trade agreements, the research discusses service trade technology spillover effects on the Trans-Pacific Partnership members. Global Trade Analysis Project’s (GTAP) simulation result indicates the following: TPP’s southeast Asian members would mostly benefit from tariff concessions. Taking service trade into account, the other southeast Asian nations’ economic output was limited except Singapore. Finally, factoring in service trade technology spillover effect, the economic growth propelled by spillover effect is correlated to service trade’s export value, particularly Japan and Singapore. Signing new age FTA would help expand domestic economy and output value. The advanced economies could also help create trade growth. However, excluding the U.S., change in simulation result is noticeable. First, Mexico’s GDP growth rate turned positive and exhibits the fastest growth in the American continent. Mexico would focus on goods trade under the TPP framework. Secondly, Japan’s agriculture loss will drop significantly. Japan will overtake Canada and becomes the country that displays the highest agriculture output growth rate. Accordingly, if Japan can boost domestic industrial growth at the expense of lower agriculture loss, the country could dominate the industry policy. Finally, excluding the U.S., the remaining TPP states could show improved trade performance; meanwhile, the advanced economies’ trade developed could be suppressed. The second is the assessment of trade liberalization’s economic impact. The GTAP model is employed to measure an economic impact from a country’s free trade zone. Free Economic Pilot Zones (FEPZs) is the case study of the research. The simulation result indicates the following: when all the demonstration industries are in place at the same time, FEPZs would generate GDP growth of 0.62% and 1.19% in the near and long term, respectively. It is wroth mentioning that the value added agricultural processing policy could improve Taiwan’s imported raw materials and exported products and yield the “value-added” positive results. Nonetheless, GDP growth boosted by the value added agricultural processing policy is very limited. On the contrary, although innovative service plays a major role in the economic growth, it is not necessarily to give all sectors a boost. Overall demonstration industries could increase value among the industries, which meets the Target Activities of “Integrating Taiwan’s advantages with potential industries and new business models”. The third is the interdisciplinary research on bilateral liberalization. The research target is Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement’s (ECFA) List and Tariff Reduction Arrangements under the Early Harvest for Trade in Goods. The micro quantitative analysis is conducted based on Difference in Difference (DID) to find correlation between trade policy and domestic labor market. Additionally, an empirical result could address the concerns about open markets. Based on the research, if the domestic companies reduce production in response to imports from China, the ECFA will not reduce labor demand in the overall import sector. Moreover, ECFA would not widen the wage gap in the export sector. Finally, the trade policy is used to testify our hypothesis. Assuming Taiwan is a skill -intensive country, the skilled labor’s factor of return in the export sector will increase significantly. On the contrary, the unskilled labor’s factor of return in the import sector would not achieve significant effect, which is not in accordance with the H-O theory. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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