The Cointegration Analysis of corn and soybean import prices of Taiwan Japan and South Korea
| Autor: | Chiung-Yu Chang, 張瓊御 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 98 Becaues the self-sufficiency ratio of corn and soybean in Taiwan are lower than 2% and 1%, most of the two crops sold in Taiwan comes from international suppliers, especially from the United States. As the international bulk grain price continues to rise and records high from October 2006 to August 2008, the international grain market supply and demand affect the import of our country, we are interested to know whether the law of one price holds for the export corn and soybean from the U.S. and the import grain market in Taiwan. By performing Johansen cointegration analysis, this paper aims to examine the correlation between the two prices. Secondly, due to the similar agricultural background, such as grographical location, they all net importers of farm products, the food self-sufficiency rate is low and most of the grain import comes from the U.S., we are interested to know whether the corn and soybean import prices from the U.S. are the same or not in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, is there any regional differences? According to our empirical results, the first part shows that both export corn and soybean from the U.S. and the import grain in Taiwan are consistent with the law of one price. Further, we use Granger Causality test to find out that the grain export prices from the U.S. is leading import custom prices, it means that we can predict the import prices trend by observing the grain export prices. The secondary empirical result reflects that the import custom prices from the U.S. in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have the same long-term fluctuation in the trend. it means that the U.S. corn and soybean exports to the three countries have no regional differences. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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