Financial crisis prediction Model-by Cash flow view
| Autor: | Yen-Jung Huang, 黃妍蓉 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 98 With the advancement of information technology, the calculation of the financial transactions has been computerized. Further, the increasing trend of internationalization has resulted in complicated and quick circulation of capital for many corporations. As a result, the fluctuation in financial market has become more significant than ever. Under this condition, the institutional investors as well as financial institutions frequently face risks from different sources for their investment portfolios. The traditional model of risk control can no longer deal with today’s ever-changing environment. When the corporations seeking for stock price maximization, how do they evaluate the risks? The rising defaults on U.S. subprime mortgage in 2nd quarter of 2007 triggered the global financial crisis. Many large financial corporations went bankrupt, which has created the unemployment problem. In the meantime, many investors had lost their shirts. The monitoring units such as government and professional audit institutions even did not notice the financial distresses of these corporations before the crisis. Apart from paying attention to the return on investment, the investors should know well about the potential risks involved in their investments as well. Through the data analysis of the delisted companies, this study compared the traditional financial distress warning models with each other based on the perspectives from the investors and cash flow. The finding of the research shows: (1) The traditional financial distress warning model is able to predict more financial distressed companies one and two quarters ahead comparing to the cash flow warning model. However, the stock price is usually the leading index of fundamental value. For example, the stock prices of Kolin and Yahsin did not decrease even the issues of the cash flow statement were noticed. Obviously, the stock price will respond in advance when the traditional financial distress warning model notices the crisis. (2) The negative operating cash flow or free cash flow is very much helpful to identify the financial distress but the account payable days are not significantly helpful. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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