The Study of Air Traffic Forecasting Model—The Southern International Airport
| Autor: | Wan-Ting Lee, 李婉婷 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2009 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 97 Accurate traffic forecast not only can be used for transportation planning but also be referred by large scale development planning such as selection of route and airports, size of fleet, and allocation of human resources etc. Short term traffic forecast can provide airport’s short term operational strategy adjustment aiming the predicted short term market. This study is to use time series method to analyze each of key factors for the traffic forecasting based on the unique characteristics of the southern international airport. The study reviewed and summarized domestic and foreign pushed literatures for the comparison of key issues against this study’s concept and model which lead to the conclusions. The core of this study was to analyze the characteristics of the southern international airport traffic forecast. The data was from Kaohsiung International Airport such as passenger and cargo flight numbers then classify the collected data, and then the results were presented by using descriptive statistics and charts. Otherwise, major incident events and traffic demand were also included in the model as intervening variables. The study adopted “Auto-Regressive Integrated moving Average” model published by Box and Jenkins in 1970 for time serious modeling and that lead to the forecasting of variable factors. These variable factors were analyzed for meanings and rationalities. For validation of the short-term demand forecast modeling results, monthly traffic data from 2004 to 2008 were collected for comparison, analysis for its accuracy and capability of the short-term forecasting. The study found that traffic volume at Kaohsiung International Airport had not been impacted by the opening up of direct flight between Taiwan and China and the international oil price hiking but there was inter-relationship between the oil price and quantities of the depart/arrival and the arrival cargo. The important factors could be the higher fuel cost for the longer distance of international flights and more non-air shipping alternatives of the domestic cargo. Regarding the increase of international departures at Kaohsiung International Airport was because of the timing of directly flight policy become effect during the Spring Festival holidays whilst most people would take overseas tours during the holidays, thus the phenomenon fit well of the short-term modeling results. In addition, the study showed that the fluctuation of the traffic volume was resulted by compounding effect of factors. The model provided a reliable short-term forecast and suggestions for the authority or the airport management to develop their short-term management strategies and operational planning. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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