| Autor: |
Nariyuki Nakagiri, Kazunori Sato, Yukio Sakisaka, Kei-ichi Tainaka |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2022) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2045-2322 |
| DOI: |
10.1038/s41598-021-04629-2 |
| Popis: |
Abstract The infectious disease (COVID-19) causes serious damages and outbreaks. A large number of infected people have been reported in the world. However, such a number only represents those who have been tested; e.g. PCR test. We focus on the infected individuals who are not checked by inspections. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is modified: infected people are divided into quarantined (Q) and non-quarantined (N) agents. Since N-agents behave like uninfected people, they can move around in a stochastic simulation. Both theory of well-mixed population and simulation of random-walk reveal that the total population size of Q-agents decrease in spite of increasing the number of tests. Such a paradox appears, when the ratio of Q exceeds a critical value. Random-walk simulations indicate that the infection hardly spreads, if the movement of all people is prohibited ("lockdown"). In this case the infected people are clustered and locally distributed within narrow spots. The similar result can be obtained, even when only non-infected people move around. However, when both N-agents and uninfected people move around, the infection spreads everywhere. Hence, it may be important to promote the inspections even for asymptomatic people, because most of N-agents are mild or asymptomatic. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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