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Abstract Forests have a prominent role in carbon sequestration and storage. Climate change and anthropogenic forcing have altered the dominant characteristics of some forested ecosystems through changes to their disturbance regimes, particularly fire. Ecosystems that historically burned frequently, like pinelands in the southeastern United States, risk changes in their structure and function when the fire regime they require is altered. Although the carbon storage potential in an unburned southeastern U.S. forest would be larger, this scenario is unrealistic due to the likelihood of wildfire. Additionally, fire exclusion can have negative consequences on these forests health, biodiversity, and species endemism. There is a need, specifically for the southeast, to estimate carbon and species dynamics based on the differences between various fire regimes, and particularly the differences between prescribed fire and wildfire. These are important factors to consider given that prescribed fire is a common tool used in the southeast, and wildfires are ever more present. Field data from an experimental Pinus palustris (longleaf pine) forest of southwest Georgia were used to parametrize the forest landscape model LANDIS‐II. The model simulated how carbon and species dynamics differ under a fire exclusion, a prescribed fire, and multiple wildfire scenarios. All scenarios except fire exclusion resulted in net emissions to the atmosphere, but prescribed fire produced the least carbon emissions from fire and maintained the most stable aboveground biomass compared to wildfire scenarios. Removing fire for approximately a century was necessary to obtain an average stand‐level biomass greater than that of prescribed fire and net emissions less than that of prescribed fire. The prescribed fire scenario produced a longleaf pine‐dominated forest, the exclusion scenario converted to predominantly oak species Quercus virginiana (live oak), Q. stellata (post oak), and Q. margaretta (sand post oak), while scenarios with intermediate wildfire regimes supported a mix of other fire‐facilitator hardwoods and pine species, such as Q. incana (bluejack oak) and Pinus elliotti (slash pine). Overall, this study supports prescribed fire regimes in southeastern U.S. pinelands to both minimize carbon emissions and preserve native biodiversity. |
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