| Autor: |
Claire S Waddington, Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas, Jacobus Preller, Martin Wiegand, Sarah L Cowan, David J Halsall, Victoria L Keevil, Brian D M Tom, Vince Taylor, Robert J B Goudie |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2022 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
BMJ Open, Vol 12, Iss 9 (2022) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2044-6055 |
| DOI: |
10.1136/bmjopen-2021-060026 |
| Popis: |
Objectives To develop a disease stratification model for COVID-19 that updates according to changes in a patient’s condition while in hospital to facilitate patient management and resource allocation.Design In this retrospective cohort study, we adopted a landmarking approach to dynamic prediction of all-cause in-hospital mortality over the next 48 hours. We accounted for informative predictor missingness and selected predictors using penalised regression.Setting All data used in this study were obtained from a single UK teaching hospital.Participants We developed the model using 473 consecutive patients with COVID-19 presenting to a UK hospital between 1 March 2020 and 12 September 2020; and temporally validated using data on 1119 patients presenting between 13 September 2020 and 17 March 2021.Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome is all-cause in-hospital mortality within 48 hours of the prediction time. We accounted for the competing risks of discharge from hospital alive and transfer to a tertiary intensive care unit for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.Results Our final model includes age, Clinical Frailty Scale score, heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation/fractional inspired oxygen ratio, white cell count, presence of acidosis (pH |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
