Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion.

Autor: Catherine Albright, Debra Van Egeren, Aditya Thakur, Arijit Chakravarty, Laura F White, Madison Stoddard
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 18, Iss 10, p e0292099 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292099&type=printable
Popis: As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has ushered in a volatile era of viral immune evasion rather than the much-heralded stability of "endemicity" or "herd immunity." At this point, an array of viral strains has rendered essentially all monoclonal antibody therapeutics obsolete and strongly undermined the impact of vaccinal immunity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work, we demonstrate that antibody escape resulting in evasion of pre-existing immunity is highly evolutionarily favored and likely to cause waves of short-term transmission. In the long-term, invading strains that induce weak cross-immunity against pre-existing strains may co-circulate with those pre-existing strains. This would result in the formation of serotypes that increase disease burden, complicate SARS-CoV-2 control, and raise the potential for increases in viral virulence. Less durable immunity does not drive positive selection as a trait, but such strains may transmit at high levels if they establish. Overall, our results draw attention to the importance of inter-strain cross-immunity as a driver of transmission trends and the importance of early immune evasion data to predict the trajectory of the pandemic.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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