| Autor: |
Sang Woo Park, Kevin Messacar, Daniel C. Douek, Alicen B. Spaulding, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Epidemics, Vol 46, Iss , Pp 100736- (2024) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
1755-4365 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736 |
| Popis: |
Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks. |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
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