Will we ever be able to accurately predict solubility?

Autor: P. Llompart, C. Minoletti, S. Baybekov, D. Horvath, G. Marcou, A. Varnek
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scientific Data, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-26 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2052-4463
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03105-6
Popis: Abstract Accurate prediction of thermodynamic solubility by machine learning remains a challenge. Recent models often display good performances, but their reliability may be deceiving when used prospectively. This study investigates the origins of these discrepancies, following three directions: a historical perspective, an analysis of the aqueous solubility dataverse and data quality. We investigated over 20 years of published solubility datasets and models, highlighting overlooked datasets and the overlaps between popular sets. We benchmarked recently published models on a novel curated solubility dataset and report poor performances. We also propose a workflow to cure aqueous solubility data aiming at producing useful models for bench chemist. Our results demonstrate that some state-of-the-art models are not ready for public usage because they lack a well-defined applicability domain and overlook historical data sources. We report the impact of factors influencing the utility of the models: interlaboratory standard deviation, ionic state of the solute and data sources. The herein obtained models, and quality-assessed datasets are publicly available.
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