The Influence of Climate Variability and Future Climate Change on Atlantic Hurricane Season Length

Autor: Christina M. Patricola, Grace E. Hansen, Ana C. T. Sena
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1944-8007
0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107881
Popis: Abstract Atlantic hurricane season length is important for emergency management preparation, motivating the need to understand its variability and change. We investigated the influence of ocean variability on Atlantic hurricane season length in observations and a future climate simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We found that multiple factors influence hurricane season length, through their influence on season start and end. Warm western subtropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during boreal spring (before the official hurricane season start) drive early starts to the hurricane season, and vice versa for cool SSTAs. Meanwhile, La Niña in autumn (before the official hurricane season end) drives late ends to the hurricane season, and vice versa for El Niño. E3SM projects a 27‐day increase in future Atlantic hurricane season length given La Niña and warm northern tropical Atlantic SSTAs. This research documents sources of predictability for Atlantic hurricane season length.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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