| Autor: |
Jeffrey M. Ashburner, Xin Wang, Xinye Li, Shaan Khurshid, Darae Ko, Ana Trisini Lipsanopoulos, Priscilla R. Lee, Taylor Carmichael, Ashby C. Turner, Corban Jackson, Patrick T. Ellinor, Emelia J. Benjamin, Steven J. Atlas, Daniel E. Singer, Ludovic Trinquart, Steven A. Lubitz, Christopher D. Anderson |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease, Vol 10, Iss 21 (2021) |
| Druh dokumentu: |
article |
| ISSN: |
2047-9980 |
| DOI: |
10.1161/JAHA.121.022363 |
| Popis: |
Background Performance of existing atrial fibrillation (AF) risk prediction models in poststroke populations is unclear. We evaluated predictive utility of an AF risk model in patients with acute stroke and assessed performance of a fully refitted model. Methods and Results Within an academic hospital, we included patients aged 46 to 94 years discharged for acute ischemic stroke between 2003 and 2018. We estimated 5‐year predicted probabilities of AF using the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology for Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE‐AF) model, by recalibrating CHARGE‐AF to the baseline risk of the sample, and by fully refitting a Cox proportional hazards model to the stroke sample (Re‐CHARGE‐AF) model. We compared discrimination and calibration between models and used 200 bootstrap samples for optimism‐adjusted measures. Among 551 patients with acute stroke, there were 70 incident AF events over 5 years (cumulative incidence, 15.2%; 95% CI, 10.6%–19.5%). Median predicted 5‐year risk from CHARGE‐AF was 4.8% (quartile 1–quartile 3, 2.0–12.6) and from Re‐CHARGE‐AF was 16.1% (quartile 1–quartile 3, 8.0–26.2). For CHARGE‐AF, discrimination was moderate (C statistic, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.57–0.70) and calibration was poor, underestimating AF risk (Greenwood‐Nam D’Agostino chi‐square, P |
| Databáze: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Plný text