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Abstract Soil moisture (SM) is a critical variable influencing various environmental processes, but traditional microwave sensors often lack the spatial resolution needed for local-scale studies. This study develops a novel stacking ensemble learning framework to enhance the spatial resolution of satellite-derived SM data to 1 km in the Urmia basin, a region facing significant water scarcity. We integrated in-situ SM measurements (obtained using time-domain reflectometry [TDR]), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SM products, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature and vegetation indices, precipitation records, and topography data. Ten base machine-learning models were evaluated using the Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) method, and the top-performing models were selected as base learners for the stacking ensemble. The ensemble model, incorporating Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost, significantly improved SM estimation accuracy and resolution compared to individual models. The XGBoost and Gradient Boosting meta-models achieved the highest accuracy, with an unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE) of 1.23% m3/m3 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.97 during testing, demonstrating the exceptional predictive capabilities of our approach. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis revealed the influence of each base model on the ensemble’s predictions, highlighting the synergistic benefits of combining diverse models. This study establishes new benchmarks for soil moisture monitoring by showcasing the potential of ensemble learning to improve the spatial resolution and accuracy of satellite-derived SM data, providing crucial insights for environmental science and agricultural planning, particularly in water-stressed regions. |
